F.I.R.E. Vehicle Model
E-Cars Total Cost Of Ownership
A used EV buying model for separating cheap purchase prices from durable five-year value. The goal is not to predict the perfect auction price. It is to identify which cars have enough volume, parts support, battery confidence, and depreciation already absorbed to be worth watching.
Baseline
5 years
Depreciation + energy + maintenance + risk reserve.
Best Signal
Volume
High sales today usually mean better used choice later.
Lowest TCO
Chevy Bolt EV/EUV
The bargain pick if home charging works and slow DC fast charging is acceptable.
Stable Family Buy
Tesla Model Y
Large installed base, strong charging access, and likely future used supply.
Efficient Commuter
Tesla Model 3
The cleanest mix of price, efficiency, availability, and ecosystem support.
Watch List
Equinox EV
Popular new, but the better used-buy moment should arrive after more lease returns.
Popularity And Pricing
Current Sales Leaders Set The Used Market
Sales counts are 2025 U.S. EV sales reported by Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive.
| 2025 Rank | Vehicle | 2025 Sales | Used Price Watch | F.I.R.E. Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tesla Model Y | 357,528 | $28k-$36k | Best supply-and-stability thesis. |
| 2 | Tesla Model 3 | 189,903 | $22k-$30k | Best high-volume commuter. |
| 3 | Chevy Equinox EV | 57,945 | $28k-$36k | Wait for more lease-return evidence. |
| 4 | Ford Mustang Mach-E | 51,620 | $25k-$33k | Worth it below Model Y pricing. |
| 5 | Hyundai Ioniq 5 | 47,039 | $25k-$34k | Strong platform if price is disciplined. |
| 6 | Honda Prologue | 39,194 | $31k-$40k | Promising, but still too new. |
| 7 | Ford F-150 Lightning | 27,307 | $32k-$45k | Only wins if a truck replaces a truck. |
| 10 | Volkswagen ID.4 | 22,373 | $20k-$28k | Good only when depreciation is obvious. |
Inputs
Adjust The Household Model
The table models ownership cost, not cash paid. It counts the value lost while you own the car, plus power, routine upkeep, and an EV-specific risk reserve for tires, battery uncertainty, charging format, software, and parts availability.
Mileage
60,000
miles over five years
Fuel Proxy
$0.17
per kWh at home
Rule
Buy Used
Let someone else absorb years one through three.
| Rank | Vehicle | Used Target | Market Signal | Energy | 5-Year TCO | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Chevy Bolt EV/EUV Compact hatch / small crossover |
$12k-$22k | Cheap now, solid range, recall history must be verified. | Best pure cost play. | |||
|
Nissan Leaf Low-cost local commuter |
$8k-$16k | Very cheap, but aging charging format and battery cooling are real constraints. | Only if it stays local. | |||
|
Tesla Model 3 High-volume sedan |
$22k-$30k | Deep used supply, efficient, good charging access, strong price transparency. | Best balanced commuter. | |||
|
Hyundai Kona Electric Small crossover |
$17k-$23k | Non-Tesla pricing has softened; good if a compact footprint works. | Quiet value candidate. | |||
|
Volkswagen ID.4 Compact SUV |
$20k-$28k | Depreciation creates opportunity, but software and service confidence matter. | Buy only at a discount. | |||
|
Tesla Model Y High-volume crossover |
$28k-$36k | The strongest volume thesis: huge sales base and future upgrade churn. | Best family default. | |||
|
Ford Mustang Mach-E Compact SUV |
$25k-$33k | Popular enough to watch; better when priced clearly below Model Y. | Good discount SUV. | |||
|
Hyundai Ioniq 5 Fast-charging crossover |
$25k-$34k | Strong EV platform; used value improves when lease returns build supply. | Best if charging speed matters. | |||
|
Kia EV6 Fast-charging crossover |
$26k-$35k | Similar case to Ioniq 5, usually a buy when the trim discount is obvious. | Shop against Ioniq 5. | |||
|
Chevy Equinox EV Newer mainstream crossover |
$28k-$36k | A top new seller in 2025, but not seasoned enough as a used buy yet. | Wait for supply. | |||
|
Honda Prologue Newer midsize crossover |
$31k-$40k | Popular new, GM-platform underpinnings, still early for used confidence. | Watch, do not chase. |
Formula: five-year depreciation estimate + five years of energy + five years of routine maintenance + risk reserve. Purchase price is not added directly because the car still has resale value at the end of the period.
Used Volume Thesis
Why Model Y Supply Matters
Tesla Model Y and Model 3 still dominate U.S. EV sales volume. That matters because used markets reward boring abundance: more listings, more comparable prices, more third-party knowledge, more salvage parts, and more owners upgrading into newer versions.
The practical read is simple. If a Model Y is only a few thousand dollars more than a lower-volume crossover, the stability may be worth paying for. If a Mach-E, ID.4, Ioniq 5, or EV6 is meaningfully cheaper, the discount can beat the Tesla ecosystem advantage.
For the next five years, the best buying windows should be tied to off-lease supply, refreshed models pushing older cars down, and dealers learning to price battery health clearly. The page should be updated with real local listings before making a purchase.
Buying Rules
- Prefer 2- to 4-year-old cars with clean service history.
- Verify battery warranty, recall completion, and charging hardware.
- Price non-Tesla SUVs against a comparable Model Y, not against MSRP.
- Use Leaf only for local driving where range loss and CHAdeMO do not matter.
- Avoid luxury EVs for F.I.R.E. unless depreciation has already been brutal.
Local Contacts
People To Add Later
A placeholder directory for local people and companies who can make an EV purchase less abstract. Keep this focused on trusted operators, not generic search results.
EV Inspection
Mechanic / Battery Check
TBD: add shop, contact, battery-health tools, and models they know well.
Charging
Electrician / EVSE Install
TBD: add panel capacity notes, quote range, permit comfort, and charger brands.
Vehicle Source
Dealer / Broker / Private Seller
TBD: add who prices cleanly, allows inspection, and understands used EV tax credit rules.
Operating Cost
Insurance / Tires / Financing
TBD: add insurers, tire shops, credit unions, and quote notes by vehicle type.
| Category | Name | Area | Best For | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inspection | TBD | TBD | Battery health, brakes, suspension, tires | Ask whether they can read battery data before booking. |
| Electrician | TBD | TBD | Level 2 charger, panel load, outdoor conduit | Collect quote range and permit notes. |
| Seller | TBD | TBD | Clean used inventory and transparent fees | Track doc fees, warranty pressure, and inspection flexibility. |
| Insurance | TBD | TBD | Model-by-model premium estimates | Store quotes beside the TCO model when available. |
Source Basis
What The Estimates Lean On
Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive
2025 U.S. EV sales rankings, Tesla share, and 2026 market outlook.
iSeeCars EV Market Study
January 2026 used EV price direction for Tesla and non-Tesla models.
Recurrent Used EV Report
Used EV market growth, pricing trends, and battery-health buying context.
AuctionNet EV Wholesale Report
Q1 2026 wholesale prices, retention, auction volume, and off-lease supply pressure.
Alternative Fuels Data Center
EPA-linked EV range, MPGe, battery, and charging reference data.